Mathematical Over/Under Goals Football Predictions for 4 January 2026

This article delivers expertly crafted football match predictions, focusing on the likelihood of under goals outcomes. Our insights are derived from rigorous statistical probability modeling, providing you with probabilities and evaluations for each match.

Predictions Overview

Rank	Time	Competition / League	Event / Match	Prediction	Probability / Confidence
1	12:45	Copa Sao Paulo de Juniores	Real Soccer U20 vs. Independente U20	Under	100%
2	09:15	Copa Sao Paulo de Juniores	Grêmio São-Carlense U20 vs. União Cacoalense U20	Under	100%
3	11:30	Tercera Division G13	Olímpico de Totana vs. Caravaca CF	Under	90%
4	12:30	Tercera Division G13	Yeclano II vs. Unión Molinense	Under	87%
5	12:15	Tercera Division G9	CD Alhaurino vs. Arenas de Armilla	Under	87%
6	12:00	Tercera Division G14	CF Villanovense vs. Montehermoso	Under	87%
7	12:00	Tercera Division G5	Vic vs. Montañesa	Under	87%
8	12:00	Tercera Division G5	Can Vidalet vs. Vilanova Geltrú	Under	85%
9	12:00	Segunda B3	Barcelona B vs. CD Ibiza-Islas	Under	85%
10	12:00	Segunda B3	Porreres vs. Poblense	Under	85%

Full Event-by-Event Breakdown

Featured Events (Top 3 by Probability)

Real Soccer U20 vs. Independente U20

The prediction for this Copa Sao Paulo de Juniores clash is under 2.5 goals, with a confidence level of 100%. This is backed by both teams' defensive records, suggesting a low-scoring affair. The model indicates minimal offensive threat, hence the high probability for under goals.

Grêmio São-Carlense U20 vs. União Cacoalense U20

Another Copa Sao Paulo de Juniores encounter tipped for under 2.5 goals, also with a 100% confidence level. Historical data shows a tendency for tight matches with few goals, reinforcing this prediction's reliability.

Olímpico de Totana vs. Caravaca CF

In the Tercera Division G13, this match sees a 90% confidence in under 2.5 goals. Both teams have shown strong defensive setups, contributing to the prediction. While slightly less confident than the top two, the probability remains significant.

Remaining Events

Yeclano II vs. Unión Molinense

Predicted to go under 2.5 goals with 87% confidence, thanks to recent low-scoring games from both sides.

CD Alhaurino vs. Arenas de Armilla

Another under 2.5 goals prediction at 87% confidence, driven by both teams' recent defensive solidity.

CF Villanovense vs. Montehermoso

Under 2.5 goals with 87% confidence, supported by statistical trends favoring defensive play.

Vic vs. Montañesa

A prediction of under 2.5 goals with 87% confidence, based on historical match outcomes.

Can Vidalet vs. Vilanova Geltrú

With 85% confidence, this game is predicted to go under 2.5 goals, with metrics showing limited attacking prowess.

Barcelona B vs. CD Ibiza-Islas

An 85% confidence in under 2.5 goals, highlighted by both teams' recent form.

Porreres vs. Poblense

Under 2.5 goals is predicted with 85% confidence, as both teams have struggled to score consistently.

Model & Accuracy Overview

Prediction systems utilize player statistics, historical match data, and team performance metrics to generate probabilities. Accuracy is assessed over time through continuous model refinement and performance tracking.

FAQ Section

How should the predictions be interpreted? Predictions offer probabilistic insights into match outcomes based on data analysis. What do confidence ratings mean? Confidence ratings reflect the model's certainty in a predicted outcome. How do prediction models differ from subjective expert picks? Models are data-driven, while expert picks often rely on personal judgment. How can predictions be used effectively? Combine predictions with personal research for informed decision-making.

Final Recommendations

For the safest selections, consider matches with the highest confidence levels. The top two Copa Sao Paulo de Juniores games provide the most reliable under 2.5 goals predictions. Overall, these predictions offer a robust analytical foundation for anticipating match outcomes.